Demographics and Numbers: Where Things Are and Where They’re Headed
This session lays the groundwork giving you the numbers you need to
understand how to take advantage of Virtual Worlds today. We’ll also
look at forecasts for where Virtual Worlds are going. What are the
growth projections? And what are the factors that will promote or
inhibit growth.
– Nic Mitham, Managing Director, K Zero
growth sectors graph
– market penetration
– market development
– product development
– diversification
– on markets and products axis
market penetration
– current products into current markets
– word of mouth continues to work – viral elements
– media assists in growth
– circle of three
– trigger for popn growth in spec country is brand moving into space
– advertising? – cant rely purely on PR
– aging of younger popn from club penguin, whyville, habbo, etc
– children will be outgrowing those worlds
– i.e. flying isnt strange/novel, innovation is key
market development
– current products into new markets
– new countries – eastern europe, s amer, asia
– older dems and groups – silver surfers
– corp comm – IBM
– eductional growth – Whyville
– 8-15
product development
– new products into existing markets
– easier user interfaces/better orientation
– bridges adoption gap into early majority
– cottage industry of SL guides
– web based remote viewers
– mobile devices
– other worlds – there, kaneva, hipihi (china)
– google my world
– impact of google userbase/mass market penetration
Diversification
– new products in new markets
– category centric ‘vertical worlds’
– football superstars
– tribal nature that naturally develops in general worlds will lead to this
– platform centric – playstation home
– cross-world avatars
– grows total population, not total unique users
Growth projections: q407-q408
– registered accounts
– SL = 10m to 20
– There – 1m t 7m
– Kaneva – .6m t 3m
– HiPiHi – 0m t 10m
– Whyville – 3m to 10m
– european interest is driving traffic growth
– Club Penguin – 15m t 30m
– Football Superstars – 0m t 3m
Park Associates
– Yuanzhe (Michael) Cai, Director, Broadband & Gaming, Parks Associates
Wrote report of game ads
Gloom and doom about virtual worlds of late in mass media
– but club penguin especially helps make you think otherwise
Launching a gaming study with more virtual worlds data in it in the next couple months, more formal VW study in feb or march
leading onlne virtual worlds
– SL
– NEopets
– Runescape
– Club Penguin
– Webkinz
– Virtual Laguna Beach
– There
– Entropis
(Social Network %/Virtual World %)
male (35/5)
female (29/7)
13-17 (53/8),
18-24 yo (71/10)
25-34 (40/12)
kids graduating to new virtual worlds when the restrictions are too high
TV is what people do less because of SL (and other VWs)
Residents of SL think it is a good medium for promoting a brand
Pros
– replicate the real worlds
– leverage interaction between the virtual and avataras
– does not require the players to pay full attention like in MMOG
– creates alot of real world buzz
Cons
– small base of active nd concurrent plyers
– tech still limit amount of concurrent
– may not be appropriate for traditional in game ad formats due to low collective traffic in most areas
– i.e. need to innovate past forums technology for user interaction
– properties set up by brands in vws require active management and maintenace
– vws currently deliver the best marketing results through organized
events, but there are technical limitations for hosting large-scale
events
– Mary Ellen Gordon, Owner, Market Truths Limited
– first RL research comp to set up operations in SL; wonner of SL business plan competition
– Our services include
– custom proprietary research projects
– standard (publicly avail) reports about
– Attitudes towards brands report released publicaly tomorrow
Advertising via IM in world and notecards was negative, especailly with neutral brands
Future measurement considerations
– active and passive data collection
– inworld versus cross world and cross channel
– reliability/validity
– use acceptability
Question – where is the underserved market?
– mid 40’s upwards – no worlds being created
– they have tech and willingness
– social networking crowd is not being served well either
– dating worlds
– more female (easier tech)
Question – estimate of VW users world wide and projections?
– Park Assoc will release report in next 6 months with these sorts of numbers
Question – comment on 80% of us will have a virtual life
– They all commented about how “medium rare” their result on and they were all working on more solid results
Question how do you define active user?
– subscription = active in those worlds
– nonsubscription – one hour a month
– average user has 1.5 results
Question – how will EU VAT (value added tax) affect western VWs?
– think it’s mostly noise, esecially as most are
Question – what is most lucrtive demo
– young kids 8-15
technorati tags:virtual-worlds, stats, second-life
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Joi Podgorny 